# Arogya Vision — R4 growth projection

This separate projection records the owner's approved advertising targets of 3 October 2026. It supersedes the old commercial assumptions for this presentation. The supplied Investor Edition workbook remains unchanged and is included as a historical reference. Forecasts are assumptions, not trading results, signed contracts or guarantees.

## Revenue and sales execution

The Month 12 target is ₹70 lakh monthly advertising revenue from 861 distinct paying accounts across eleven categories. Months 1–3 have no ad revenue. Months 4–12 target ₹8L, ₹16L, ₹25L, ₹35L, ₹42L, ₹49L, ₹56L, ₹63L and ₹70L. Year 1 therefore totals ₹3.64 crore, not ₹70L multiplied by twelve.

Year 2's end target uses 35% account growth and 10% average price growth. Year 3 uses 25% account growth and a further 10% price growth. Revenue rises gradually between annual endpoints; category shares remain constant. No Premium subscriptions, patient-service commissions or revenue from additional unpriced categories is included. Chain and brand prices cover both cities together. All prices exclude GST.

Approximately 96 net new paying accounts per month in Months 4–12, plus replacement of cancellations, are required. Lead generation, staffing capacity, audience sufficiency, conversions, renewals and achievable pricing still require commercial evidence. Increased marketing spend does not guarantee traffic or sales.

## Profit and operating costs

Annual advertising revenue: ₹3.64 crore / ₹10.61 crore / ₹15.01 crore.

Annual company profit after illustrative tax: ₹23.6516526 lakh / ₹239.6149202 lakh / ₹333.1304506 lakh.

Revenue includes a 31.5% allowance for agency commission (25%), sales incentives (3.5%) and unpaid bills (3%). Company cash operating budgets are ₹215.764764706L, ₹402L and ₹576L. These already include own advertising budgets of ₹75.261764706L, ₹171L and ₹252L. Do not deduct those campaign budgets twice.

Company operating budgets include staffing, technology, support, content, rent and related running expenditure as aggregate planning allowances. Their detailed allocation and quotations require management validation. QR and self-service implementation/servicing must fit within those budgets; separate incremental revenue or productivity savings are not added.

Equipment purchases are separate cash outflows, depreciated over 36 months from purchase. The tax assumption is 25.17% with modelled carried-forward accounting deficits; actual tax treatment has not been established by this calculation. Profit after tax is an accounting result, not a cash balance or automatic payment to investors.

The launch months may have costs above income. The website uses neutral styling and clear labels; signed accounting values remain available in drilldowns, the CSV and workbook. An accounting deficit includes depreciation and must not be described as the same amount of cash expenditure.

## ₹75 lakh capital ceiling

The primary case assumes the full ₹75 lakh is available at Month 1. Later expenditure is funded by collections, not another capital injection. It approximates collection of 70% of net contribution in the billing month and 30% the following month, then deducts company costs, equipment purchases and tax. Cash is not a complete GST or working-capital ledger.

The primary minimum cash balance is ₹14.8372353L in Month 5. The original staged investment schedule (₹37.5L in Month 1, ₹22.5L in Month 3, ₹15L in Month 5) has minimum cash ₹3.8382353L in Month 2. Neither scenario assumes additional external investment.

A one-month sales delay at unchanged costs creates a ₹3.8872647L cash gap. Spending must be reduced or deferred to remain within ₹75 lakh. The sensitivities expose this need; they do not pretend a cash-constrained alternative operating plan has already been modelled. Main company cash views are before shareholder distributions.

## Investor ROI illustration

New, editable example inputs: ₹75 lakh investment; 15% equity ownership; distribution of 20% of positive annual profit to all shareholders; whole-company equity valuation at 3× Year 3 profit after tax; sale of the entire investor stake at Month 36. These are illustrative terms, not agreed investment terms and not figures asserted to come from the old workbook.

Investor dividends = sum of each year's positive PAT × payout percentage × ownership.

Assumed stake sale proceeds = positive Year 3 PAT × valuation multiple × ownership.

Total potential proceeds = dividends + assumed stake sale proceeds.

ROI = (total potential proceeds − original ₹75L) / ₹75L. This is a total three-year return, not an annualised rate.

Default illustration: ₹17.8919107L dividends + ₹149.9087028L assumed stake sale = ₹167.8006135L potential proceeds. Gain above invested capital = ₹92.8006135L. Total ROI = 123.7341513%; proceeds multiple = 2.2373415×.

Exit value becomes cash only with a buyer and completed sale. No exit, dividend or return is committed. No further funding or dilution is assumed. Investor personal taxes and transaction costs are excluded. Retained company cash is not added again to the assumed equity valuation. If Year 3 PAT is not positive, a PAT-multiple terminal valuation is unavailable and the illustration assigns no terminal stake value; this is not an appraisal.

At a 20% payout to all shareholders at each year-end, primary-case company cash would end each year at ₹72.9543776L, ₹256.0195889L and ₹513.3633022L under this simplified model. Distributions still require approval and lawful distributable funds. The dashboard checks cash after the selected payout across all shareholders.

## Source and update discipline

The new workbook is formula-based with a single scenario selector and editable assumptions. The website reads a packaged, tested snapshot of that model. Editing a workbook does not automatically update the static website: refresh the JSON/JavaScript data and repeat figure checks before presenting an amended version.

Eleven new sensitivities are included in R4. The original eleven workbook scenarios and their original dataset are retained separately as superseded historical evidence. They are not silently relabelled as the new plan.

Product screenshots contain demonstration records. Proposed advertising/QR/WhatsApp packages require delivery validation and applicable claim/advertiser review before sale. Sponsored placements must be labelled. No guaranteed booking, clinical outcome, health-data sale or patient-referral commission is assumed.